One important part of modern economics is time series forecasting. The aim of time series forecasting is to predict how a given variable will evolve in the future knowing its past behavior. Time series forecasting was a hot subject of discussion from the beginnings of the human civilization, see fortune-telling, astrology, hand-reading, etc. Humans wanted and still want to know the future in advance.
The situation today has not changed a lot. There aren't any wizards, but there are still published thousands of papers and books about time series forecasting. Many software have been also designed to solve such hard problems. Techniques vary from statistical methods, to optimal control, to neural networks and many more.
The purpose of this blog is to present uncommon techniques that can be implemented with open source software. This means that 0€ must be paid in order to apply these methods, since all the software is freely downloadable from the internet. Some of the software I am going to use includes octave (or scilab), R, python, and others. All these programs will be used to study and forecast time series from stock markets and weather (cliche?), to client orders, or even number of blog followers.
The situation today has not changed a lot. There aren't any wizards, but there are still published thousands of papers and books about time series forecasting. Many software have been also designed to solve such hard problems. Techniques vary from statistical methods, to optimal control, to neural networks and many more.
The purpose of this blog is to present uncommon techniques that can be implemented with open source software. This means that 0€ must be paid in order to apply these methods, since all the software is freely downloadable from the internet. Some of the software I am going to use includes octave (or scilab), R, python, and others. All these programs will be used to study and forecast time series from stock markets and weather (cliche?), to client orders, or even number of blog followers.
However, there is a warning. All these stuff wont predict the future for you. There is no crystal ball. The methods and techniques presented here are just to show you alternative ways of analysing your data.
But why chaos? Well, chaos theory, including also bifurcation theory and some of singularity theory, is something different. It deals with the non-linear character of the phenomena and how they behave at singularities.
Have fun!
Dimitris
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